Friday marks one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. Most experts thought it would be over quickly, as did the Russians. Despite the fact that publicly, the Ukrainians didn't think the invasion was imminent, US intelligence had the date exactly correct. That had everyone believing we had a mole inside and we probably did. Nevertheless, the Ukrainians have out-smarted and out-fought the Russians every step of the way. I don't buy any of the casualty numbers you hear and err on the side that they are much, much higher than we've been led to believe. My gut tells me there have been just shy of 180,000 Russian deaths, with as many wounded. Ukrainian casualties are lower, by about half.
I have several thoughts as we hit the one-year mark. The future of the world as we know it will be altered by this conflict and not for the better. I hope to be wrong on that one. I also am emboldened by the performance of our weapon systems and believe if we had been involved in a conventional fight with Russia, we would've decimated the Russian military in short order. However, nothing with Russia is short order due to vast reserves. Lastly, this will not be the last war of the decade and the next one might be the end times, as in Revelations type shit.
Vladimir Putin needs to die and his desire for a Greater Russia needs to die with him. Economically and ideologically, Russia is inferior with Putin in charge. Here you have a murderous dictator, who currently leads the world in the deaths of other people. He has murdered his opposition, his weak links and anyone not towing his line. He's invaded several independent countries, killed tens of thousands of civilians and oppressed the rest, installing henchmen in positions of psuedo-power to make sure he has a buffer between he and the evils of Western culture. Only a pathological maniac would consider the current situation a golden opportunity to cleanse his country of those not in line with his vision. A vision that in reality, is racist, xenophobic and monolithic, not to mention totalitarian and isolated. Many of those that have fled will not be coming back, but they are also the ones who have been living in free countries and able to get real information on the war. All of Russia either knows or will know of the true costs of the "special military operation" and the atrocities committed there. The only question with the Russian people is after living under one form or another of oppression for more than 100 years, are they programmed to be afraid and numb to all of this and believe the lies they are being told?
Putin has put himself in peril. If he is allowed to live and he wins, I fear for the future. I do not think he sits idly by after NATO helped destroy his army. He will be weakened no matter what and he's old, but his unholy alliance with China and Iran is a worst-case scenario for the United States. We are much weaker and even compromised with our current leadership or lack thereof. Our combat readiness has been destroyed in favor of equity and inclusion and our military has already lost its edge to China in almost every arena of war. Let's face it, every conflict in the modern era conducted by a super-power has been a proxy war of some kind. Russia knew we'd support Ukraine and, in the end, it would only be because of the utter ineptitude of the Russian military that this went on as long as it has. Our opposition was expected, but I think he can make a case that with the intelligence in real time and probably real time targeting info that we were directly involved in the conflict. Even if it isn't quite true, it will sell well in Russia as they deal with a massive body count. Putin routinely blames the US and NATO for trying to destroy his country. Another cold war with Russia is inevitable now.
If Russia were to lose, which could be in several forms, I think all bets are off on what will happen. Putin could be overthrown or he could be pushed to the use of nuclear weapons. The best case scenario would be to have him overthrown and killed with a Western-neutral leader, probably a military person, take over. In Russia, this may include a revolution or civil war, but the collapse of a super-power has already happened in Russia once in our lifetime. Unfortunately, this is how we got to our current situation. With the country infested with nuclear weapons, it's a real dicey probability. If he survives, I think the worst of Putin will come out and I expect Ukraine and perhaps another country or two to glow with radiation for the next hundred years. This creates the buffer he wants and he could care-a-less about being a pariah. Russian doctrine already allows for the use of tactical nukes and in a desperation move he could use them. He threatens it all the time. This will guaranty he will be killed, and even though he isn't stupid, his ego and desire to bring back the Soviet Union may be too strong to resist. If I were a betting man, I think both he and Zelensky will be killed in the end. One will go out a martyr and the other will die to the elation of millions.
Our weapon systems have performed phenomenally well. Several of the systems are loved by the Ukrainians and hated by the Russians. The early part of the war saw anti-tank weapons take the battlefield by storm, now it's long-range systems that are making the difference. They also are signs of escalation, which should scare all of us a little. The HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) has been a game-changer. This system hits its targets with extreme lethality 100% of the time. The Ukrainians have used it in very smart situations, hitting clusters of troops, vehicles and ammo dumps. It's taken out command and control units and never misses. The six-tube system is mounted on a truck and can fit into a C130, which makes it quickly deployable anywhere. The Ukrainians have been using the guided version of the missiles which fly low and fast and have yet to be taken out by air defense systems. The Russians have claimed to have destroyed several HIMARS systems with air power and missiles of their own, but they haven't even damaged one yet. A company has now created an inflatable look-a-like to fool the Russians, which can then be used for counter-battery fire.
The Ukrainians love the Switchblade drone the US has provided. It's small, portable and lethal. Not only is it used for surveillance, but once it finds its prey the drone flies fast into the target in a kamikaze attack and detonates its warhead. It carries an anti-armor missile, which has taken out Russian tanks and can even destroy well dug in positions. It's launched from a tube and its wings and fins project out after it's airborne. The optics are great and to-date the Russians have yet to shoot one out of the sky. It was actually designed and built by an Afghan immigrant and is being built in an undisclosed location.
Other systems of note, the MK-19 automatic grenade launcher has found a home with Ukrainian soldiers. This is actually a cold war era weapon, which we used in Iraq and Afghanistan. It launches grenades from more than a mile away and can easily burn its way through light skinned vehicles. Its lethality comes from being nearly silent, so it hits undetected and the Ukrainians who've used it say the Russians hate it.
The M777 artillery system is also beloved. Artillery has grown up since the last time it was used en mass. It is light and easily hidden and moved. With an effective range of 26 miles, the 155mm howitzer can fire guided shells, which are highly accurate. Even non-guided rounds can be put on target in small groupings. The Marines scored a direct hit in Iraq at 22 miles with this gun. The Ukrainians love it for its mobility and accuracy. We've donated 90 so far and the Canadians another 37. The Russians love massed artillery and have a massive advantage in numbers. They don't, however, have an advantage in technology. We have sent an ingenious shell, called the RAAM(Remote Anti-armor Mine) that expels 9 mines from the rear of the shell once over the target area. These mines can be detonated remotely or simply by detecting the signature of an armored vehicle. There are some that can't be disarmed by someone trying to clear the minefield as well. Since there is no impact from the shell hitting the ground, the Ukrainians watch with drones while the Russians clear a path through the minefield, then hit the area again with more RAAMs and watch the fireworks. The M777 has been very effective, along with the Switchblade in counter-battery fire. The large majority of deaths on the battlefield continue to be from artillery.
The Russians are now fighting the war like it is WWII or even in the case of Bakhmut, like WWI. With a reluctant well of humanity at his disposal, Putin is throwing away lives like the Russians have always done. They charge into Ukrainian positions and die in droves. Stories of bodies piled high are everywhere now. The purpose is simple. Wear the Ukrainians down, chew up their ammunition and win by attrition. In the process, they destroy everything in their path. Bakhmut has ceased to exist as a city for some time now. The Russians also have a penchant for killing their own. Hundreds of soldiers have died from being killed by their own troops for not advancing, refusing to fight or wounding themselves. The only problem for Russia is that in the wars I mentioned, the very existence of Russia was at stake and it was a great honor to die for the Motherland. Here, the Russians don't really know why they are fighting, moral is low, their experienced solders are dead and the population's tolerance for casualties is waning. The Russian people are not former KGB officers who wax nostalgically for the days of the Soviet Union, like their leader. Putin's days are numbered, but if this war drags on, the Russians will win simply because they don't care about casualties and the only hope for Putin is victory. I suspect the West's patience and money will run out and Putin hopes so too. We already have a split in this country. There are voices on the right attacking our stance on the war from the money we've spent to the brinkmanship we are broaching. Therein lies the problem with the West and America in general. Our lives have been too good to stick out conflicts of this kind. It's easy to find the money spent to be intolerable with all the problems we have here and it's also easy to see that this may lead to a much wider conflict. That kind of conflict is the kind where no one wins. We will be confronted with this again when China goes for Taiwan. If you've read anything about Xi Jinping, this attack is inevitable. Taiwan will cease to exist in a year or two. Will America risk WWIII over the island country of Taiwan? Biden says so. I've heard two stories about war games that have been run. One by an independent company that says we win and classified ones where we don't. The losses on both sides are enormous, including the loss of a least two of our carriers and hundreds of aircraft. China loses most of its navy, amphibious troops and aircraft and Taiwan it's entire navy and all aircraft. I don't doubt our military or its capability, but the last few years of attrition due to our vaccination stance may have left us in no shape to confront China. We are smarter and better, but they could overwhelm Taiwan in relatively short order because they get to pick the time it happens. What we actually do in this situation is unknown, but with Xi hell-bent on taking Taiwan, would they be willing to fight a global conflict to control the island? It's hard to think about, but we better be prepared. One winning possibility is if our allies can hit China from so many directions that they didn't account for the rest of the world standing up to them. I'm not sure they've thought it through clearly. That could be their doom. For now, the war in Ukraine is teaching both sides lessons of a modern conflict. It's currently confined, here's to hoping it stays that way.
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